Daily Briefing — 31 March 2026

1. Iran War Escalation — Israel strikes continuing, Iran set oil tanker ablaze off Dubai, Trump threatened energy infrastructure targets. Every headline spooked traders.

2. Brent Crude at ~$110/barrel — Oil up 35%+ since conflict started. India imports 85% of crude needs — higher oil = inflation + wider CAD + weaker rupee.

3. FIIs Dumped Rs 11,163 Cr — Record low rupee near 94/$ accelerating foreign exits. DIIs absorbed with Rs 14,895 Cr in buying, limiting the damage.

• April 1 (Wed): Markets reopen — first session of FY2026-27. Cautious open expected; watch GIFT NIFTY for early direction
• April 6-8: RBI MPC meeting — repo rate at 5.25%. High oil creates dilemma: cut for growth or hold to fight inflation?
• Ongoing: Watch Trump-Iran back-channel talks (WSJ reports he may settle without Hormuz reopening)
• Global: EU energy emergency, Asia energy barter — supply disruption worsening
• Key trigger: Any Iran ceasefire signal = violent 3-5% NIFTY relief rally

Market Holiday Today — NSE & BSE closed for Mahavir Jayanti. Next session opens Wednesday, April 1 — the first trading day of FY2026-27.

Yesterday (March 30) was the last trading day of FY2025-26, and it wasn't pretty. The market ended the year on a sour mood, dragged down by the ongoing US-Iran war and Brent crude hovering around $110/barrel. NIFTY 50 fell 2.14% while SENSEX tanked over 1,600 points in a single session — a fitting, painful full stop to a turbulent fiscal year.

Market mood: FY26 ended in the red as Iran war jitters, $110 Brent crude, and record-weak rupee (94/dollar) hammered sentiment across the board.

1. Iran War Escalation — Israel is "prepared to keep striking Iran for weeks to come". Iran set a giant oil tanker ablaze off Dubai. Trump threatened to target Iranian energy infrastructure. Every headline spooked traders.

2. Brent Crude at $110/barrel — Oil is up 35%+ since the conflict started. That's bad news for India, which imports ~85% of its crude needs. Higher oil means higher inflation, wider current account deficit, and weaker rupee.

3. FIIs Pulled Out Big — Foreign investors dumped 11,163 crore worth of Indian stocks in a single session. The rupee hit a record low near 94 to the dollar. When the currency weakens, FIIs accelerate selling to reduce FX losses.

Gainers:

1. Hindalco +2.46% — Metals rally as commodity prices surge globally
2. Tech Mahindra +1.66% — IT sector finding relative safety amid macro chaos
3. Coal India +1.13% — Domestic energy demand surge; coal prices firm
4. ONGC +1.05% — Oil PSU benefits directly from high crude prices

Losers:

1. Bajaj Finance -4.95% — Fear of credit slowdown + rate hike risks hitting NBFCs hard
2. Shriram Finance -3.82% — Same NBFC sector pressure; fuel cost worries for vehicle loans
3. SBI -3.80% — PSU banks selling off on macro uncertainty
4. IndiGo -3.65% — Aviation crushed by surging ATF (jet fuel) costs
5. Kotak Mahindra Bank -3.59% — Banking sector broadly weak

• Brent Crude: ~$110/barrel (up 35%+ since Iran war started)
• US Tech Stocks: Struggling for safe-haven appeal, no longer decoupling from geopolitics
• Asian Markets: Bartering for scarce energy as Iran crisis throttles supplies
• Yen: Japan calling the yen decline "speculative" as war ignites currency sell-off
• EU: Preparing for "prolonged disruption" to energy markets

No new alerts triggered. VIX at 27.89 — elevated. Market is in fear zone (above 20 = caution, above 25 = high fear).

• April 1 (Wednesday): Markets reopen — first session of FY2026-27. Expect a cautious open; watch GIFT NIFTY futures for direction.
• April 6-8: RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting — repo rate currently at 5.25%. High oil creates a dilemma: cut rates for growth or hold to fight inflation?
• Ongoing: Watch Trump-Iran back-channel talks (WSJ: Trump "willing to end war without reopening Hormuz") — any peace signal = sharp market rally.
• Global: EU energy emergency, Asia energy barter — supply disruption deepening.
• Key trigger: Any Iran ceasefire signal = violent 3-5% NIFTY relief rally.